Whom do you go to when you want to know if it will rain tomorrow? A classic Laxman cartoon had the common man consulting a roadside astrologer
outside the weather bureau!
When it comes to predictions, the weather and the elections are not poles apart. Around the world, experts and laymen keep their eyes peeled for what the bookies are up to in the run-up to elections — for the betting industry is known to put its money where the votes are.
As the great Indian vote begins, bookies are taking bets on the four main national parties — the Congress, BJP, SP and BSP. On the eve of Phase 1 of the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress-led UPA is a clear frontrunner.
While the Mumbai operators are quoting odds of 1:1 (you win Re 1 on every rupee you bet) for the Congress getting 142 seats, their Delhi counterparts are offering a net gain of 80 paise on every rupee for Congress winning at least 150 seats.
For the BJP, the going is not as good, with Mumbai citing 1:1 for the saffron party getting 128 seats while the Delhi bookies fancy it even less, offering nourishing odds of 1:0.7 (70 paise win for every rupee bet) for even 120 seats.
In Delhi, the Congress is backed heavily to sweep the polls, with measly odds of 25 paise for six seats, while that for the BJP getting two seats is as high as 1:3.
While the sums involved are huge, it’s obviously impossible even to get a ballpark figure given the secretive nature of the illegal trade. A source in the industry said, ‘‘The rates opened on Wednesday but we have been receiving a lot of queries for the past one month. The Congress and the UPA are emerging favourites among bettors. These numbers might improve after the first polling phase and we expect that the BJP-led NDA might improve its rates.’’
The rate for the Samajwadi Party hovers around 1:0.8 if it wins 20 seats. Similarly, if Mayawati’s BSP wins 35 seats, bettors stand to win 80 paise for every rupee. The rate for the Shiv Sena winning 15 seats is 80 paise.
And with major players in the present government pulling out before the election, the punters said that rates for alliances are likely to see a jump after in the first week of May. Even in Rajasthan’s biggest betting market, Phalodi, which falls midway between Jaisalmer and Bikaner, the betting sentiment backs the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre this time as well. And they favour Manmohan Singh becoming PM for another term.
The present PM, Manmohan Singh, appears to be the overwhelming choice to retain his gaddi, with odds on him going only up to 1:0.8 while those for L K Advani becoming PM ranges between Re 1 and Rs 5. But a change in the rates are likely to be seen as the elections progresses.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Friday, April 10, 2009
9 out of 10 employees in India do not have social security: OECD
Informal employment is at record levels worldwide with severe consequences for poverty in poor countries. The financial crisis is throwing Coming to terms with lay-off
Crisis time: Keep staff motivated
Job-cuts: A blessing in disguise
Keep it light at your workplace!
many people out of work and, in developing countries with no unemployment insurance, they are forced to take informal jobs with low pay, no protection and high risk exposure.
According to a study report christened as “Is Informal Normal?” by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1.8 billion people, or more than half of the global labour force are working without a formal labour contract and social security. That number is projected to grow to two thirds of the workforce by 2020, assuming stable population trends and growth patterns, and could go higher if more jobs are lost to the economic crisis and more migrants return home to informal sector jobs.
“Even during good times with robust growth rates, in many developing countries informal employment increased in some regions,” says Johannes Jutting, one of the study’s authors.
“Though India grew during the last decade above 5 percentage points per year, people there feel better jobs are not being created. In fact 9 out of 10 employees in India, approximately 370 million people, do not have formal social security.”
Informal economic activity, excluding the agricultural sector, accounts for three-quarters of jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa, more than two-thirds in South and Southeast Asia, half in Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and nearly one-quarter in transition countries. If agriculture is included, the informal share of the economy in each region is even higher (e.g., more than 90% in South Asia).
The share of informal employment tends to increase during economic turmoil. For example, during the Argentine economic crisis (1999-2002), the country’s economy shrank by almost one-fifth, while the share of informal employment expanded from 48% to 52%, the OECD report says.
However, the report warns of the potential draw-backs of a further increase in informal employment.
“Lower wages and incomes in poor countries that do not have the means to provide comprehensive safety nets. Women - who constitute the majority of workers in poor quality jobs - will be particularly affected, as will youth and the elderly. The majority of the 1.4 billion poor people in the world depend exclusively on their labour for survival. Low pay, with no social benefits, increases the likelihood that the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty world-wide by 2015 will not be met,” mentions the study report.
“Is Informal Normal?” calls for a comprehensive package that promotes good quality job creation not only in the formal sector, but also in the informal sector. Improving infrastructure, enhancing skills development, promoting institutional reform and access to resources for informal businesses are key elements in this strategy. These measures should be accompanied by public works, micro-credit or conditional transfer programs.
Crisis time: Keep staff motivated
Job-cuts: A blessing in disguise
Keep it light at your workplace!
many people out of work and, in developing countries with no unemployment insurance, they are forced to take informal jobs with low pay, no protection and high risk exposure.
According to a study report christened as “Is Informal Normal?” by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1.8 billion people, or more than half of the global labour force are working without a formal labour contract and social security. That number is projected to grow to two thirds of the workforce by 2020, assuming stable population trends and growth patterns, and could go higher if more jobs are lost to the economic crisis and more migrants return home to informal sector jobs.
“Even during good times with robust growth rates, in many developing countries informal employment increased in some regions,” says Johannes Jutting, one of the study’s authors.
“Though India grew during the last decade above 5 percentage points per year, people there feel better jobs are not being created. In fact 9 out of 10 employees in India, approximately 370 million people, do not have formal social security.”
Informal economic activity, excluding the agricultural sector, accounts for three-quarters of jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa, more than two-thirds in South and Southeast Asia, half in Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and nearly one-quarter in transition countries. If agriculture is included, the informal share of the economy in each region is even higher (e.g., more than 90% in South Asia).
The share of informal employment tends to increase during economic turmoil. For example, during the Argentine economic crisis (1999-2002), the country’s economy shrank by almost one-fifth, while the share of informal employment expanded from 48% to 52%, the OECD report says.
However, the report warns of the potential draw-backs of a further increase in informal employment.
“Lower wages and incomes in poor countries that do not have the means to provide comprehensive safety nets. Women - who constitute the majority of workers in poor quality jobs - will be particularly affected, as will youth and the elderly. The majority of the 1.4 billion poor people in the world depend exclusively on their labour for survival. Low pay, with no social benefits, increases the likelihood that the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty world-wide by 2015 will not be met,” mentions the study report.
“Is Informal Normal?” calls for a comprehensive package that promotes good quality job creation not only in the formal sector, but also in the informal sector. Improving infrastructure, enhancing skills development, promoting institutional reform and access to resources for informal businesses are key elements in this strategy. These measures should be accompanied by public works, micro-credit or conditional transfer programs.
India for regional approach to meltdown at ASEAN meet
Ahead of the ASEAN and an East Asia summit, India on Thursday underlined the need for developing regional synergies to deal with the global financial crisis of "unprecedented dimensions".
Commerce Minister Kamal Nath will represent India at the its summit meeting with 10-nation Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to be held at Pattaya in Thailand Saturday.
He will also represent India at the fourth 16-nation East Asia summit comprising 10 ASEAN nations, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand, to held in Thailand Sunday.
Kamal Nath will be standing in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as the latter is unable to go due to his engagements related to electoral campaigning ahead of the 15th Lok Sabha elections.
Evolving a collective regional approach to mitigating global meltdown will top the agenda at both the summits.
The seventh India-ASEAN summit is "being held at a crucial time in global affairs.
"There is a financial crisis of unprecedented dimensions, which is calling into question the economic processes unleashed by globalisation," the external affairs ministry said in a statement.
"In the context of the current global economic slowdown, developing regional synergies is imperative for dealing with the recessionary trends," the ministry said.
India, a dialogue partner with the ASEAN, will focus on further boosting its economic and commercial engagement with Southeast Asian countries. However, a landmark Free Trade Area (FTA) agreement, which is said to be in its final stage, is not likely to be signed at the summit, official sources said.
Differences relating to duty cuts and market protection for certain items, particularly relating to agriculture, still remain to be resolved.
The decision on signing the FTA is likely to be taken by the new government which is formed after the April-May elections.
The ASEAN countries, which have badly suffered due to a decline in their exports to slowing economies of the US and Japan, are mulling to set up a fund of foreign exchange, estimated to be around $120 billion, to fight the global downturn.
Commerce Minister Kamal Nath will represent India at the its summit meeting with 10-nation Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to be held at Pattaya in Thailand Saturday.
He will also represent India at the fourth 16-nation East Asia summit comprising 10 ASEAN nations, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand, to held in Thailand Sunday.
Kamal Nath will be standing in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as the latter is unable to go due to his engagements related to electoral campaigning ahead of the 15th Lok Sabha elections.
Evolving a collective regional approach to mitigating global meltdown will top the agenda at both the summits.
The seventh India-ASEAN summit is "being held at a crucial time in global affairs.
"There is a financial crisis of unprecedented dimensions, which is calling into question the economic processes unleashed by globalisation," the external affairs ministry said in a statement.
"In the context of the current global economic slowdown, developing regional synergies is imperative for dealing with the recessionary trends," the ministry said.
India, a dialogue partner with the ASEAN, will focus on further boosting its economic and commercial engagement with Southeast Asian countries. However, a landmark Free Trade Area (FTA) agreement, which is said to be in its final stage, is not likely to be signed at the summit, official sources said.
Differences relating to duty cuts and market protection for certain items, particularly relating to agriculture, still remain to be resolved.
The decision on signing the FTA is likely to be taken by the new government which is formed after the April-May elections.
The ASEAN countries, which have badly suffered due to a decline in their exports to slowing economies of the US and Japan, are mulling to set up a fund of foreign exchange, estimated to be around $120 billion, to fight the global downturn.
Fresh production warrant against underworld don Salem
A Delhi court has issued a fresh production warrant against underworld don Abu Salem after the Mumbai police failed to produce him again
in an extortion case.
Chief Metropolitan Magistrate Kaveri Baweja sought the presence of the extradited gangster before the court on April 24.
The court had on March 19 directed the Arthur Road Jail authorities in Mumbai to produce Salem on Friday.
The Mumbai police had on December 12 last year and on January 16 and February 24 failed to produce the gangster here.
Two other accused C P Rai and Sadiq Ali were present before the court while another accused Istiyaq Ahmed had sought exemption from appearance during the proceedings.
Salem, who was brought here on November 26 last year, has been lodged in the Mumbai jail after being extradited from Portugal in 2005.
Besides Salem, three others Rai, Ali and Ahmed have been booked for allegedly making threat calls to Rajat Nagrath, owner of Allied Communication at East of Kailash here, demanding Rs one crore in 2002.
The don is facing trial in eight cases including 1993 Mumbai serial blasts and two murder.
A separate court here is also hearing another extortion case registered under stringent law MCOCA against Salem in which Delhi government had filed a plea to withdraw the charges against him.
in an extortion case.
Chief Metropolitan Magistrate Kaveri Baweja sought the presence of the extradited gangster before the court on April 24.
The court had on March 19 directed the Arthur Road Jail authorities in Mumbai to produce Salem on Friday.
The Mumbai police had on December 12 last year and on January 16 and February 24 failed to produce the gangster here.
Two other accused C P Rai and Sadiq Ali were present before the court while another accused Istiyaq Ahmed had sought exemption from appearance during the proceedings.
Salem, who was brought here on November 26 last year, has been lodged in the Mumbai jail after being extradited from Portugal in 2005.
Besides Salem, three others Rai, Ali and Ahmed have been booked for allegedly making threat calls to Rajat Nagrath, owner of Allied Communication at East of Kailash here, demanding Rs one crore in 2002.
The don is facing trial in eight cases including 1993 Mumbai serial blasts and two murder.
A separate court here is also hearing another extortion case registered under stringent law MCOCA against Salem in which Delhi government had filed a plea to withdraw the charges against him.
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